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February 21, 2013 in climate change
Jeanius said on February 21, 2013
Hi Henry, came by to say hello.
I don’t do too well with figures- explain some?
henryp said on February 22, 2013
The (black) figures you are looking at in the tables (allow some time to load up), represent the average change in degrees Celsius (or Kelvin) per annum, from the average temperatures measured during the period indicated. These are the slopes of the least square fit equations or “ linear trendlines” for the periods indicated, as calculated, i.e. the value before the x.
The average temperature data from the stations were obtained from http://www.tutiempo.net. I tried to avoid stations with many missing data. Nevertheless, it is very difficult finding weather stations that have no missing data at all. If a month’s data was found missing or if I found that the average for a month was based on less than 15 days of that month’s data, I looked at the average temperatures of that month of the preceding- and following year, averaged these, and in this way estimated the temperatures of that particular month’s missing data.
To understand how I did this you just need to understand first year statistics. I will come back to you on what these figures all mean by giving cross references to other comments. You can already see that all results for maxima, means and minima went negative some 15 years ago. This means earth is getting cooler now. But don’t worry. I don’t think we will fall in an ice age just yet. I have good hopes that my A-C curve is correct. http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/10/02/best-sine-wave-fit-for-the-drop-in-global-maximum-temperatures/
(but where did all my comments go on the above post? I cannot seem to be able to make contact with the administrator of this blog)
Here is a first cross reference.
Kelvin Vaughan said on March 17, 2013
CET temps totalled over each sunspot cycle compared with total sunspots.
When Temperatures a low then maximum temperatures go up with sunspot numbers. When temperatures are high then maximum temperatures go up as the sunspot numbers go down.
It appears there is a mechanism trying to keep the temperatures high.
The minimum temperatures always do the opposite to sunspot numbers.
henryp said on March 17, 2013
Hi Kelvin! I need to see a graph of that or the paired data.I lost a lot of comments – I don’t how that happened or why.
I cannot get a plot out of that that makes sense to me. Remember that in a cooling period such as now, CET runs opposite of the a-c wave
as determined earlier by me (post went missing)
simply because it gets more clouds and precipitation. So paradoxically it gets warmer in CET because globally it is getting cooler.,… it is called the GH effect…..
Kelvin Vaughan said on March 19, 2013
I have been playing with the total of maximum temperatures in a cycle and the total number of sun spots.
I have discovered there is a correlation formula on Excel and have been using it after Willis pointed out I should be using it.
I have found a correlation of -0.99 between max and sunspots and -0.97 for minimum and sun spots for Cambridge UK.
I then tried it on Lerwick and discovered that for the cycles before the one ending in 1964 the correlations are +0.90 and +0.92. For the cycles ending 1964 onwards the correlations are -0.81 and 0.77.
I then tried it on the CET and got the same change at the 1964 cycle. I got 0.67 and 0.78 for cycles 1964 on and 0.71 and 0.64 prior to the 1964ending cycle.
Do you still want me to upload the graph?If so how do I do it?
henryp said on March 19, 2013
my mum has just passed on to be with the Lord and I have a lot of things to do and on my mind. My son always figures out for me how to upload a graph on my blog, I am not too good at it myself. In any case, you must first start a blog.
Just remember: for example, if you do a plot on the drop of maximum temps (last row, first table, above, and you set the average speed of warming/cooling out against time, you can also get a binomial with very high correlation, something like 0.997, but in the end it showed that that plot would lead to such an amount of cooling such as has never seen before. This therefore led me to consider the a-c wave fit for same data:
so with high correlation it may show that you are going somewhere but don’t be too quick into predicting the future from your plot….
Kelvin Vaughan said on March 21, 2013
Sorry to hear about your Mum Henry. It’s not good to loose a family member, especially when it’s your Mum. My thoughts are with you.
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